Every Londoner has heard the cliché: “If there’s a Waitrose nearby, expect to pay through the nose.” Or the variation: “Spot a Gail’s opening, and the area is officially gentrified.”
On the flip side, some chains — ASDA, Lidl, chicken shops — are often treated as shorthand for areas that are “cheaper.”
These are funny pub conversations and long-running jokes on r/HousingUK, but is there any truth behind them? Or is it just middle-class snobbery wrapped in a croissant?
We decided to test the hypothesis by running actual data across the London housing market, tying thousands of Land Registry transactions to their nearest supermarket and café. The results are surprising, funny, and occasionally brutal.
The idea isn’t new. For decades, property journalists have written about the “Waitrose Effect” — the suggestion that house prices near a Waitrose are higher than average. It became such a persistent hypothesis that even Lloyds Bank once ran a study claiming homes near Waitrose were worth £36,000 more than those near other supermarkets.
But let’s be honest: Lloyds Bank was spinning PR. The bank benefits from people believing house prices will only ever rise, and “Waitrose houses” makes a nice headline.
At street level, people see something simpler. When an area “upgrades” from a tired corner shop to a sparkling Waitrose Local, it feels like external confirmation that the area has arrived. Same with Gail’s. The shop isn’t creating affluence — it’s chasing it.
Still, hypotheses survive because they contain a kernel of truth. So the question is: what happens if we look beyond PR press releases and measure it properly?
Here’s how we tackled it using the Area360 data:
London Median Reference We set the London-wide median property price at £525,000 (based 68,252 Land Registry transactions from last 12 months).
Supermarket & Café Mapping Using a database of supermarket and café chains, we mapped every Land Registry sale to its nearest outlet within 500 meters - 1 kilometers of the property.
Calculate Local Medians For each chain, we computed the median sale price, along with 5th and 95th percentiles (to avoid outliers skewing the picture). In total we have 68,252 transactions from past 12 months.
Compare to London Median Finally, we measured the uplift or discount versus London’s median — in both % terms and absolute £ difference.
This isn’t about causation (shops don’t magically add £90k to a house overnight), but about correlation: where these shops appear, what does the surrounding housing market look like?
Here’s where things get interesting.
Median property price per local supermarket brand
Difference vs London median (%)
Hypothesis Check: “Waitrose = Rich Area” ✅ Confirmed. Homes near Waitrose are significantly pricier. But it’s not Waitrose itself — it’s that Waitrose chooses wealthier postcodes.
Hypothesis Check: “ASDA = Cheaper Area” ✅ Also true. The numbers show a clear downward pull.
Data summary
Supermarket | Median price | vs London median (%) | vs London median (£) |
---|---|---|---|
Waitrose | £625,000 | +19.0% | £100,000 |
Amazon Fresh | £623,750 | +18.8% | £98,750 |
M&S | £586,000 | +11.6% | £61,000 |
Sainsbury | £545,000 | +3.8% | £20,000 |
Co-op | £533,403 | +1.6% | £8,403 |
Tesco | £525,000 | +0.0% | £0 |
Aldi | £521,250 | -0.7% | £-3,750 |
Morrisons | £516,000 | -1.7% | £-9,000 |
Iceland | £500,000 | -4.8% | £-25,000 |
Lidl | £478,000 | -9.0% | £-47,000 |
ASDA | £458,875 | -12.6% | £-66,125 |
If supermarkets show a gap, cafés reveal a canyon.
Median property price vs local cafes
Difference vs London median (%)
Hypothesis Check: “Gail’s = Expensive” ✅ The meme matches the math. If you can smell sourdough, house prices nearby are significantly higher.
Hypothesis Check: “Morley’s = Cheaper” ✅ Also real. The Morley’s signal is negative compared to London average.
Data summary
Cafe | Median price | vs London median (%) | vs London median (£) |
---|---|---|---|
Joe & The Juice | £787,000 | +49.9% | £262,000 |
GAIL’s | £726,250 | +38.3% | £201,250 |
Wasabi | £711,605 | +35.5% | £186,605 |
LEON | £682,500 | +30.0% | £157,500 |
Franco Manca | £675,000 | +28.6% | £150,000 |
itsu | £675,000 | +28.6% | £150,000 |
Black Sheep Coffee | £663,875 | +26.4% | £138,875 |
Five Guys | £627,500 | +19.5% | £102,500 |
Caffè Nero | £625,000 | +19.1% | £100,000 |
Wagamama | £625,000 | +19.1% | £100,000 |
PizzaExpress | £621,262 | +18.3% | £96,262 |
Pret A Manger | £615,000 | +17.1% | £90,000 |
Zizzi | £592,500 | +12.9% | £67,500 |
Starbucks | £575,000 | +9.5% | £50,000 |
Nando’s | £555,000 | +5.7% | £30,000 |
Papa John’s | £549,950 | +4.8% | £24,950 |
Costa | £542,000 | +3.2% | £17,000 |
Burger King | £540,000 | +2.9% | £15,000 |
Domino’s | £535,000 | +1.9% | £10,000 |
Subway | £530,000 | +0.9% | £5,000 |
KFC | £520,000 | -0.9% | £-5,000 |
Greggs | £520,000 | -0.9% | £-5,000 |
McDonald’s | £519,500 | -1.1% | £-5,500 |
Pizza Hut | £515,000 | -1.9% | £-10,000 |
German Doner Kebab | £498,750 | -5.0% | £-26,250 |
Morley’s | £489,375 | -6.8% | £-35,625 |
Take: West Hampstead vs Lewisham.
Or look east: Stratford vs Barking. Both are within half an hour of the City, but the signals are different.
Similar commute, different high street — and a completely different property market.
So what’s going on?
Retailer Site Selection Big chains don’t roll dice. They pore over demographic data before opening new stores. Average income, education levels, catchment size, age mix — all are analysed before a Gail’s or Waitrose is approved.
Neighbourhood Life Cycle Retail follows housing. Areas that gentrify see the independents arrive first, then chain cafés, and eventually the bigger supermarkets. The shops are a symptom of rising affluence, not the cause.
Perception Feedback Loop Once the Waitrose or Gail’s arrives, it feeds back into perception: estate agents start name-dropping, buyers feel reassured, and sellers hike asking prices. In effect, the hypothesis reinforces itself.
Yes — and they’re fascinating.
So while the broad correlation holds, local context matters.
It’s worth asking: does talking about the “Waitrose effect” just reinforce class snobbery? Possibly. It reduces complex housing dynamics to a shorthand about croissants.
But the truth is, buyers really do use these signals. A flat advertised as “two minutes from Waitrose” is subtly marketed differently from one “near ASDA.” The estate agent knows which words sell.
The real value of crunching this data isn’t to dunk on Morley’s or worship Waitrose. It’s to see how local amenities reflect deeper socio-economic trends:
At Area360, we pull all these datasets into one place — so you can see not just “is there a Gail’s nearby,” but also what’s behind it.
So, do Gail’s and Waitrose cause your home to be £100k–£200k more expensive? No. But are they reliable signals of the type of neighbourhood you’re in? Absolutely.
The hypothesis is funny, the stereotype a bit snobby — but the correlation is strong. If you want a cheaper home, shop near ASDA. If you want to flex about your sourdough, follow Gail’s.